Validation of risk prediction scores for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir or tenofovir

Jin Won Chang, Jae Seung Lee, Hye Won Lee, Beom Kyung Kim, Jun Yong Park, Do Young Kim, Sang Hoon Ahn, Yeon Seok Seo, Han Ah Lee, Mi Na Kim, Yu Rim Lee, Seong Gyu Hwang, Kyu Sung Rim, Soon Ho Um, Won Young Tak, Young Oh Kweon, Soo Young Park, Seung Up Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Several prediction scores for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are available. We validated the predictive accuracy of age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis (AASL), RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). Between 2007 and 2014, 3171 patients were recruited (1645, ETV; 1517, TDF). The predictive accuracy of each prediction score was assessed. The mean age of the study population (1977 men; 1194 women) was 48.8 years. Liver cirrhosis was present in 1040 (32.8%) patients. During follow-up (median, 58.2 months), 280 (8.8%) patients developed HCC; these patients were significantly older; more likely to be male; had significantly higher proportions of liver cirrhosis, hypertension and diabetes; and had significantly higher values for the four risk scores than those who did not develop HCC (all P <.05). Older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.048), male sex (HR = 2.142), liver cirrhosis (HR = 3.144) and prolonged prothrombin time (HR = 2.589) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC (all P <.05), whereas a higher platelet count (HR = 0.996) was independently associated with a decreased risk of HCC (P <.05). The predictive accuracy of AASL score was the highest for 3- and 5-year HCC predictions (areas under the curve [AUCs] = 0.818 and 0.816, respectively), followed by RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores (AUC = 0.780-0.815 and 0.769-0.814, respectively). In conclusion, four HCC prediction scores were assessed in Korean CHB patients treated with ETV or TDF. The AASL score showed the highest predictive accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)95-104
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Viral Hepatitis
Volume28
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Jan

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning (2019R1A2C4070136). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hepatology
  • Virology
  • Infectious Diseases

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