Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure

Sayma Sabrina Khanam, Eunhee Choi, Jung Woo Son, Jun Won Lee, Young Jin Youn, Junghan Yoon, Seung Hwan Lee, Jang Young Kim, Sung Gyun Ahn, Min Soo Ahn, Seok Min Kang, Sang Hong Baek, Eun Seok Jeon, Jae Joong Kim, Myeong Chan Cho, Shung Chull Chae, Byung Hee Oh, Dong Ju Choi, Byung Su Yoo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background In clinical practice, a risk prediction model is an effective solitary program to predict prognosis in particular patient groups. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are widely recognized outcome-predicting factors for patients with heart failure (HF).This study derived external validation of a risk score to predict 1-year mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with HF using the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC)program data. We also assessed the effect of adding BNP or NT-proBNP to this risk score model in a Korean HF registry population. Method and results We included 5625 patients from the Korean acute heart failure registry (KorAHF) and excluded those who died in hospital. The MAGGIC constructed a risk score to predict mortality in patients with HF by using 13 routinely available patient characteristics (age, gender, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), HF diagnosed within the last 18 months, current smoker, NYHA class, use of beta blocker, ACEI or ARB, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and EF). We added BNP or NT-proBNP, which are the most important biomarkers, to the MAGGIC risk scoring system in patients with HF. The outcome measure was 1-year mortality. In multivariable analysis, BNP or NT-proBNP independently predicted death. The risk score was significantly varied between alive and dead groups (30.61 ± 6.32 vs. 24.80 ± 6.81, p < 0.001). After the conjoint use of BNP or NTproBNP and MAGGIC risk score in patients with HF, a significant difference in risk score was noted (31.23 ± 6.46 vs. 25.25 ± 6.96, p < 0.001).The discrimination abilities of the risk score model with and without biomarker showed minimal improvement (C index of 0.734 for MAGGIC risk score and 0.736 for MAGGIC risk score plus BNP or NT-proBNP, p = 0.0502) and the calibration was found good. However, we achieved a significant improvement in net reclassification and integrated discrimination for mortality (NRI of 33.4%,p < 0.0001 and IDI of 0.002, p < 0.0001). Conclusion In the KorAHF, the MAGGIC project HF risk score performed well in a large nationwide contemporary external validation cohort. Furthermore, the addition of BNP or NT-proBNPto the MAGGIC risk score was beneficial in predicting more death in hospitalized patients with HF.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0206380
JournalPloS one
Volume13
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Nov

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natriuretic peptides
Natriuretic Peptides
heart failure
meta-analysis
Meta-Analysis
Heart Failure
Mortality
Brain Natriuretic Peptide
Registries
Biomarkers
biomarkers
death
beta-adrenergic antagonists
Blood Pressure

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Khanam, Sayma Sabrina ; Choi, Eunhee ; Son, Jung Woo ; Lee, Jun Won ; Youn, Young Jin ; Yoon, Junghan ; Lee, Seung Hwan ; Kim, Jang Young ; Ahn, Sung Gyun ; Ahn, Min Soo ; Kang, Seok Min ; Baek, Sang Hong ; Jeon, Eun Seok ; Kim, Jae Joong ; Cho, Myeong Chan ; Chae, Shung Chull ; Oh, Byung Hee ; Choi, Dong Ju ; Yoo, Byung Su. / Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure. In: PloS one. 2018 ; Vol. 13, No. 11.
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title = "Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure",
abstract = "Background In clinical practice, a risk prediction model is an effective solitary program to predict prognosis in particular patient groups. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are widely recognized outcome-predicting factors for patients with heart failure (HF).This study derived external validation of a risk score to predict 1-year mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with HF using the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC)program data. We also assessed the effect of adding BNP or NT-proBNP to this risk score model in a Korean HF registry population. Method and results We included 5625 patients from the Korean acute heart failure registry (KorAHF) and excluded those who died in hospital. The MAGGIC constructed a risk score to predict mortality in patients with HF by using 13 routinely available patient characteristics (age, gender, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), HF diagnosed within the last 18 months, current smoker, NYHA class, use of beta blocker, ACEI or ARB, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and EF). We added BNP or NT-proBNP, which are the most important biomarkers, to the MAGGIC risk scoring system in patients with HF. The outcome measure was 1-year mortality. In multivariable analysis, BNP or NT-proBNP independently predicted death. The risk score was significantly varied between alive and dead groups (30.61 ± 6.32 vs. 24.80 ± 6.81, p < 0.001). After the conjoint use of BNP or NTproBNP and MAGGIC risk score in patients with HF, a significant difference in risk score was noted (31.23 ± 6.46 vs. 25.25 ± 6.96, p < 0.001).The discrimination abilities of the risk score model with and without biomarker showed minimal improvement (C index of 0.734 for MAGGIC risk score and 0.736 for MAGGIC risk score plus BNP or NT-proBNP, p = 0.0502) and the calibration was found good. However, we achieved a significant improvement in net reclassification and integrated discrimination for mortality (NRI of 33.4{\%},p < 0.0001 and IDI of 0.002, p < 0.0001). Conclusion In the KorAHF, the MAGGIC project HF risk score performed well in a large nationwide contemporary external validation cohort. Furthermore, the addition of BNP or NT-proBNPto the MAGGIC risk score was beneficial in predicting more death in hospitalized patients with HF.",
author = "Khanam, {Sayma Sabrina} and Eunhee Choi and Son, {Jung Woo} and Lee, {Jun Won} and Youn, {Young Jin} and Junghan Yoon and Lee, {Seung Hwan} and Kim, {Jang Young} and Ahn, {Sung Gyun} and Ahn, {Min Soo} and Kang, {Seok Min} and Baek, {Sang Hong} and Jeon, {Eun Seok} and Kim, {Jae Joong} and Cho, {Myeong Chan} and Chae, {Shung Chull} and Oh, {Byung Hee} and Choi, {Dong Ju} and Yoo, {Byung Su}",
year = "2018",
month = "11",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0206380",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "PLoS One",
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Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure. / Khanam, Sayma Sabrina; Choi, Eunhee; Son, Jung Woo; Lee, Jun Won; Youn, Young Jin; Yoon, Junghan; Lee, Seung Hwan; Kim, Jang Young; Ahn, Sung Gyun; Ahn, Min Soo; Kang, Seok Min; Baek, Sang Hong; Jeon, Eun Seok; Kim, Jae Joong; Cho, Myeong Chan; Chae, Shung Chull; Oh, Byung Hee; Choi, Dong Ju; Yoo, Byung Su.

In: PloS one, Vol. 13, No. 11, e0206380, 11.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure

AU - Khanam, Sayma Sabrina

AU - Choi, Eunhee

AU - Son, Jung Woo

AU - Lee, Jun Won

AU - Youn, Young Jin

AU - Yoon, Junghan

AU - Lee, Seung Hwan

AU - Kim, Jang Young

AU - Ahn, Sung Gyun

AU - Ahn, Min Soo

AU - Kang, Seok Min

AU - Baek, Sang Hong

AU - Jeon, Eun Seok

AU - Kim, Jae Joong

AU - Cho, Myeong Chan

AU - Chae, Shung Chull

AU - Oh, Byung Hee

AU - Choi, Dong Ju

AU - Yoo, Byung Su

PY - 2018/11

Y1 - 2018/11

N2 - Background In clinical practice, a risk prediction model is an effective solitary program to predict prognosis in particular patient groups. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are widely recognized outcome-predicting factors for patients with heart failure (HF).This study derived external validation of a risk score to predict 1-year mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with HF using the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC)program data. We also assessed the effect of adding BNP or NT-proBNP to this risk score model in a Korean HF registry population. Method and results We included 5625 patients from the Korean acute heart failure registry (KorAHF) and excluded those who died in hospital. The MAGGIC constructed a risk score to predict mortality in patients with HF by using 13 routinely available patient characteristics (age, gender, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), HF diagnosed within the last 18 months, current smoker, NYHA class, use of beta blocker, ACEI or ARB, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and EF). We added BNP or NT-proBNP, which are the most important biomarkers, to the MAGGIC risk scoring system in patients with HF. The outcome measure was 1-year mortality. In multivariable analysis, BNP or NT-proBNP independently predicted death. The risk score was significantly varied between alive and dead groups (30.61 ± 6.32 vs. 24.80 ± 6.81, p < 0.001). After the conjoint use of BNP or NTproBNP and MAGGIC risk score in patients with HF, a significant difference in risk score was noted (31.23 ± 6.46 vs. 25.25 ± 6.96, p < 0.001).The discrimination abilities of the risk score model with and without biomarker showed minimal improvement (C index of 0.734 for MAGGIC risk score and 0.736 for MAGGIC risk score plus BNP or NT-proBNP, p = 0.0502) and the calibration was found good. However, we achieved a significant improvement in net reclassification and integrated discrimination for mortality (NRI of 33.4%,p < 0.0001 and IDI of 0.002, p < 0.0001). Conclusion In the KorAHF, the MAGGIC project HF risk score performed well in a large nationwide contemporary external validation cohort. Furthermore, the addition of BNP or NT-proBNPto the MAGGIC risk score was beneficial in predicting more death in hospitalized patients with HF.

AB - Background In clinical practice, a risk prediction model is an effective solitary program to predict prognosis in particular patient groups. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are widely recognized outcome-predicting factors for patients with heart failure (HF).This study derived external validation of a risk score to predict 1-year mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with HF using the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC)program data. We also assessed the effect of adding BNP or NT-proBNP to this risk score model in a Korean HF registry population. Method and results We included 5625 patients from the Korean acute heart failure registry (KorAHF) and excluded those who died in hospital. The MAGGIC constructed a risk score to predict mortality in patients with HF by using 13 routinely available patient characteristics (age, gender, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), HF diagnosed within the last 18 months, current smoker, NYHA class, use of beta blocker, ACEI or ARB, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and EF). We added BNP or NT-proBNP, which are the most important biomarkers, to the MAGGIC risk scoring system in patients with HF. The outcome measure was 1-year mortality. In multivariable analysis, BNP or NT-proBNP independently predicted death. The risk score was significantly varied between alive and dead groups (30.61 ± 6.32 vs. 24.80 ± 6.81, p < 0.001). After the conjoint use of BNP or NTproBNP and MAGGIC risk score in patients with HF, a significant difference in risk score was noted (31.23 ± 6.46 vs. 25.25 ± 6.96, p < 0.001).The discrimination abilities of the risk score model with and without biomarker showed minimal improvement (C index of 0.734 for MAGGIC risk score and 0.736 for MAGGIC risk score plus BNP or NT-proBNP, p = 0.0502) and the calibration was found good. However, we achieved a significant improvement in net reclassification and integrated discrimination for mortality (NRI of 33.4%,p < 0.0001 and IDI of 0.002, p < 0.0001). Conclusion In the KorAHF, the MAGGIC project HF risk score performed well in a large nationwide contemporary external validation cohort. Furthermore, the addition of BNP or NT-proBNPto the MAGGIC risk score was beneficial in predicting more death in hospitalized patients with HF.

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