Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure

Sayma Sabrina Khanam, Eunhee Choi, Jung Woo Son, Jun Won Lee, Young Jin Youn, Junghan Yoon, Seung Hwan Lee, Jang Young Kim, Sung Gyun Ahn, Min Soo Ahn, Seok Min Kang, Sang Hong Baek, Eun Seok Jeon, Jae Joong Kim, Myeong Chan Cho, Shung Chull Chae, Byung Hee Oh, Dong Ju Choi, Byung Su Yoo

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13 Citations (Scopus)


Background In clinical practice, a risk prediction model is an effective solitary program to predict prognosis in particular patient groups. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are widely recognized outcome-predicting factors for patients with heart failure (HF).This study derived external validation of a risk score to predict 1-year mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with HF using the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC)program data. We also assessed the effect of adding BNP or NT-proBNP to this risk score model in a Korean HF registry population. Method and results We included 5625 patients from the Korean acute heart failure registry (KorAHF) and excluded those who died in hospital. The MAGGIC constructed a risk score to predict mortality in patients with HF by using 13 routinely available patient characteristics (age, gender, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), HF diagnosed within the last 18 months, current smoker, NYHA class, use of beta blocker, ACEI or ARB, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and EF). We added BNP or NT-proBNP, which are the most important biomarkers, to the MAGGIC risk scoring system in patients with HF. The outcome measure was 1-year mortality. In multivariable analysis, BNP or NT-proBNP independently predicted death. The risk score was significantly varied between alive and dead groups (30.61 ± 6.32 vs. 24.80 ± 6.81, p < 0.001). After the conjoint use of BNP or NTproBNP and MAGGIC risk score in patients with HF, a significant difference in risk score was noted (31.23 ± 6.46 vs. 25.25 ± 6.96, p < 0.001).The discrimination abilities of the risk score model with and without biomarker showed minimal improvement (C index of 0.734 for MAGGIC risk score and 0.736 for MAGGIC risk score plus BNP or NT-proBNP, p = 0.0502) and the calibration was found good. However, we achieved a significant improvement in net reclassification and integrated discrimination for mortality (NRI of 33.4%,p < 0.0001 and IDI of 0.002, p < 0.0001). Conclusion In the KorAHF, the MAGGIC project HF risk score performed well in a large nationwide contemporary external validation cohort. Furthermore, the addition of BNP or NT-proBNPto the MAGGIC risk score was beneficial in predicting more death in hospitalized patients with HF.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0206380
JournalPloS one
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Nov

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by Research of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [2010-E63003-00, 2011-E63002-00, 2012-E63005-00, 2013-E63003-00, 2013-E63003-01, 2013-E63003-02, and 2016-ER6303-00]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript."

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Khanam et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • General

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