Varices on computed tomography are surrogate of clinically significant portal hypertension and can predict survival in compensated cirrhosis patients

Background and Aim: To investigate prognostic value of varices on computed tomography (CT) and redefine surrogate criteria for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 241 patients with compensated cirrhosis who underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement from 2008 to 2013. Using CT and upper endoscopy findings obtained within 3 months from HVPG measurement, patients were classified into three groups: presence of standard surrogate for CSPH, defined as presence of varices on upper endoscopy and/or splenomegaly associated with thrombocytopenia (Group 1, n = 139); varices on CT without standard surrogate for CSPH (Group 2, n = 41); and free from both (Group 3, n = 61). HVPG value and overall survival (OS) rates were compared among three patient groups. Revised surrogate for CSPH was defined as presence of standard surrogate and/or presence of varices on CT (i.e. both Group 1 and Group 2). Results: Mean HVPG value in Group 2 was significantly higher than that in Group 3 (10.3 mmHg vs 6.5 mmHg, P < 0.001), but significantly lower than that in Group 1 (10.3 mmHg vs 13.1 mmHg, P < 0.001). Seven-year OS rates in Group 2 was similar to those in Group 1 (57.0% vs 62.7%, P = 0.591), but significantly poorer than those in Group 3 (57.0% vs 84.0%, P = 0.015). The presence of revised surrogate for CSPH was a significant predictive factor for OS (P = 0.025, Hazard ratio = 2.71 [1.14–6.45]) on multivariate analysis whereas standard surrogate for CSPH was not (P = 0.849). Conclusion: The presence of varices on CT was a significant sign for CSPH, predicting poor OS outcome in patients with compensated cirrhosis.